Adrian Rollett

Words about things I’m interested in every sometimes

21 Nov 2024

Waymo is the McDonald's of taxis

I took my first ride in a Waymo earlier this year. It was both remarkable as a new experience, and unremarkable in that it matched most other people’s observations. It felt amazing and futuristic for about five minutes. However, nothing triggered any feeling of unease or lack of safety, and I quickly found myself tempted to check out and reach for my phone.

So, what makes me say that Waymo is like McDonald’s?1 I believe that the predictability of the Waymo experience is what will drive it to McDonald’s-esque levels of market penetration.2 People don’t go into McDonald’s for an exceptional experience, but because they know what they will get.


Safety

Waymo is not only safer than human drivers3, it feels safer. Almost all uber rides I’ve taken with a human driver have included a more aggressive driving style than I prefer4 and at least one distraction caused by the Uber app pinging with another ride. In addition, the cars themselves are higher quality than the vast majority of rideshare vehicles. Just as a McDonald’s hamburger is very unlikely to make you sick,5 you’re very unlikely to get injured in a Waymo. To stretch the analogy even further, just as fast food will harm you in the long term, so will relying on convenient rides instead of walking or biking!


Ick, people

Just as McDonald’s has pioneered the mass move from personal table service to automated interactions, when you get into a Waymo you don’t:

I do mourn the loss of one more opportunity for interaction between our social bubbles, but let’s be honest: Uber isn’t doing anything to solve the loneliness epidemic.


I believe that Waymo is succeeding in fully homogenizing the rideshare experience. This implies quite a few things that are left as an exercise for the reader but should mostly be obvious. If you’re a degenerate gambler wise investor and are wondering how to trade on this idea, sorry! I’m an index fund investor.6


  1. I should say that this thought is a light veneer on Matt Bell’s statement that the average Waymo is usually at maybe 80th percentile on the Lyft/Uber quality scale↩︎

  2. And probably into a generic term for a driverless taxi, like Kleenex for tissues. ↩︎

  3. Human drivers are to blame for most serious Waymo collisions  ↩︎

  4. Yep, I’m a boring middle-aged guy who is all too conscious of his own mortality. ↩︎

  5. Recent events notwithstanding. ↩︎

  6. boring middle-aged guy, remember? ↩︎